Sunday, April 16, 2006

Conflict with Iran: Inevitable or Avoidable? Close

The following is an email I sent to a fellow " the-world-can-actually-be- a- nice peaceful-productive-place-if we want-it-to-be-so” person. She wrote an article for an alternative ( i.e. true) media source, the gist of which was to say " Hey, the Iranian Mullahs aren't really seeking Nukes." Another with Physicians for Social Responsibility wrote to the effect that we just have to talk to the Iranians the correct way. The difficulty with such idealistic folks is to get them to see reality in a totally level-headed way. The unfortunate reality is that, those Iranian Mullahs ARE seeking the nukes, they have an agenda, they are not to be trusted. The following are excerpts from the email:

As a serious critic, intellectual and otherwise, of that Neocon Gang, please maintain this standard by being objective and realistic in your analysis. I suspect your audience is very educated and has no real difficulty sifting through the finer points of grey in an issue ( I certainly don’t). Notwithstanding those Skull & Bones "diabolicalnesses” Bush I & Bush II, I am still going to be objective with issues per the US Administration. Exactly what am I talking about?

The Evidence Against the Mullahs:

First 1) Let’s look at the possible motivations of the Iranian Mullahs ( I know the politics of the source and that it might be self-serving but I will accept it) ************************************************************************© 2006 FROM WND'S JERUSALEM BUREAU: PA investigates Iran 'embassy' after WND story; New headquarters promotes apocalyptic world battle of 'good' vs. 'evil' Posted: March 7, 20061:00 a.m. Eastern By Aaron Klein© 2006 Iran's new Shia Council in Palestine was also established to help spread Iranian theocracy and rule throughout the West Bank and Gaza Strip, Muhamad Gawanmeh, director of the new headquarters, said in an interview
NUCLEAR WAR-FEAR : Iran negotiator announces:We duped West on nukesTop Tehran negotiator tells Islamic clerics, academics talks convinced EU nothing afoot Posted: March 5, 20061:00 a.m. Eastern
**************************************************************************** So we have deep religious motivation for the Iranian Mullahs. Then there is the internal politics of Iran with the younger people as stated in your article, and Iran hedgemonistic desires in the region and with the other branch(es) of Islam.

2) Then we have the evidence for their nuclear program: **************************************************************************** The Iranian Gas Centrifuge Uranium Enrichment Plant at Natanz: Drawing from Commercial Satellite Images By David Albright and Corey Hinderstein The Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) March 14, 2003 The Natanz site is surrounded by a security fence and has many buildings, including underground facilities, representing a large uranium enrichment complex. Underground buildings currently under construction will be devoted to enriching uranium, and these well-protected buildings are sized to hold over 50,000 centrifuges. ****************************************************************************

Then 3) we have alternatives Iran can pursue if their objectives is solely peaceful nuclear power for energy production in their economy; a)

*********************************************************************** Bush thwarted by China super nuke plant? Posted: February 25, 20061:00 a.m. Eastern © 2006 China will actually begin construction of such a revolutionary nuclear reactor this year near Weihai, in eastern China's Shandong province. The 190-megawatt prototype "pebble-bed" nuclear reactor is expected to be generating electricity in 2010. A pebble-bed reactor is like a giant radiation-shielded, self-contained, gumball machine, containing hundreds of thousands of billiard-ball sized fuel elements, together with hundreds of thousands of billiard-ball sized carbon moderators. In operation, hundreds of the billiard balls are continually removed (robotically) from the bottom of the gumball machine, checked (robotically) for remaining fissile-material content, logged, and re-introduced (robotically) into the top of the gumball machine

Or b) The Iranian can choose the South African model if they are truly not seeking nuclear weapons.

End of Evidence against the Mullahs ( Actually, there is more, see below.)

So far, this pebble-bed alternative is wishful thinking; it has not acted to thwart Bush. Can anyone talk the Mullahs out of their strategy? When you see that they are just “religious” mirror image ideologues of many here in the West, (religious is in quotations because religion is not supposed to make one a social destructive war monger), trying to talk or shame the Mullahs out of their path might not seem realistic.

Taking all these together I say we have a problem. But what is the way out? It might depend on many factors. It might depend on how quickly there can be an Israeli-Palestinian peace deal. The Mullahs would have less legitimacy in eyes of other Arabs to interject themselves. It would depend on the dynamics of the political development in Iran; can the younger more moderates make a comeback. Can the Bush neocons and their worldwide clique not make a mess of this situation.? I don’t think so. They do not have the commitment to human life and development that is required.

Some have even suggested think through them eventually acquiring such weapons in light of the other developments .With those developments done the creative possibilities are many. A nuclear-free zone in the Middle East with verification for ALL? Many of you “serious” analysts call the gang simply Neocons then refuse to consider the Skull & Bones, Bilderberg and other Conspiracy Theory aspects to that Gang. I would not recommend this. There are many things that I have now started to look at differently in light of these CTs. For example, any records of who was seeing the Ayatolla Khomeni when he was in exile?? Any known CT participants? There could be all sorts of angles going on here, so it would be the job of us "peace-loving" folks, to try and influence “the players” for a peaceful life affirming outcome, while still being level-headed about these fellow human beings who are running so many of our governments on the planet.

What might some of these other developments be?
a) How quickly The Israeli Government might hammer out a legitimate peace
deal with Hamas or who ever in charge for the Palestinian.
b) The internal politics of Iran The Mullah's rating are reported to be only
about 15%
c) The reaction of the rest of the Muslim -world who are not Shia.
d) Very importantly does this (any) US administration have the social wisdom,
maturity and deftness to handle this complex situation achieving thus, the
total desired outcome?

Then comes the information that the Israelis (some quarters) are saying from now a categorical no to a nuke-free middle east no matter how threat-free is the future. See Neocon: Iran will have Nuke in Sixteen Days

Wednesday April 12th 2006, 5:35 pm

Whoever believes that Israel will ever sign the UN Convention prohibiting the proliferation of nuclear weapons… is day dreaming,” Ze’ev Shiff, an Israeli military expert, wrote for Haaretz.

The moral and political meaning of nuclear weapons is that states which renounce their use are acquiescing to the status of Vassal states. All those states which feel satisfied with possessing conventional weapons alone are fated to become vassal states,” Munya Mardoch, Director of the Israeli Institute for the Development of Weaponry, declared in 1994 "

Plus Hamas refuses to move of the dime per Israel's implicit right as a nation, and no split the difference quid pro quo appears to be happening, while Iran pours $50 million to Hamas. Not good if that money is coming from the Iran Mullahs.

Then further there is the article in the UK Telegraph ( 16 /April/06 ) giving the theology and planning (plotting) behind the Iranian position as stated by the Mullahs themselves. I quote:

"In a massive political jamboree in Teheran last week, Ahmadinejad also assumed control of the "Jerusalem Cause", which includes annihilating Israel "in one storm", while launching a take-over bid for the cash-starved Hamas government in the West Bank and Gaza.Ahmadinejad has also reactivated Iran's network of Shia organizations in Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Yemen, while resuming contact with Sunni fundamentalist groups in Turkey, Egypt, Algeria and Morocco. From childhood, Shia boys are told to cultivate two qualities. The first is entezar, the capacity patiently to wait for the Imam to return. The second is taajil, the actions needed to hasten the return. For the Imam's return will coincide with an apocalyptic battle between the forces of evil and righteousness, with evil ultimately routed. If the infidel loses its nuclear advantage, it could be worn down in a long, low-intensity war at the end of which surrender to Islam would appear the least bad of options. And that could be a signal for the Imam to reappear."

Hence pointing a finger at Israel's nuclear forces and saying then that the Iranian's have right to theirs, is not an answer. We peace-loving folks ( and others) have to take these Iranian Mullahs very seriously.

What we have here is the proverbial three-sided box. Israel-Hamas won't budge, the Iranians are plotting and Bush is aiming. The key to getting out of this box is to send the Mullahs packing without playing into their hands.

First we have to set, or more precisely re-set, the global tone in regards to nuclear weapons. Yes nuclear weapons are not good things, they are the unfortunate consequence of WWII. Yes we the nuclear-club consequence of WWII will be taking even more vigorous and public measures to reduce our arsenals. Yes we can envision a day when these weapons are minimal and under strict international inputs. And yes, nuclear weapons are not status symbols required in the normal role of nation states.

We have to acknowledge that we, the major life form on this planet, have made a lot of social progress especially since WWII, and that this progress can continue. It is the normal way of things. With wise choices we do not have to condemn ourselves to futures of perpetual warfare.

With this set we can simultaneously tackle the nuclear issue on the Indian sub-continent. It was precisely that tone that allowed us to have a South-America that is a nuclear-free. [Incidentally , I just read for the first time, the history behind the issue on the sub-continent. I can’t believe that because of ego-driven issues and others, a completely solvable problem like that was allowed to escalate to the point of requiring nukes. A lesson to be learnt by all about the treachery that is/can be ego. One must admire the quite wisdom of the American Founding Fathers who had an informal selection system for President, that tried to exclude the vain and the ego-driven. As a planter-statesman, you were suppose to do your good innings, be a good vassal for the state, then return back to your farm. Except now the state is now this one planet we all occupy.]

I sent the same writer another idea of the Israel-Hamas impasse:

“I have an idea about a way out of the present stalemate with Hamas. They want a state , all the major parties say the same thing. But, I suspect because of ego-positioning, and fear of loosing a tool with which to pressure Israel, they Hamas, won't come off the dime.

[ Are pressure tools a legitimate concern? I would say yes. I would not go out on a limb to say that any of these folks in any of these governments are boy/girl scouts angels. That would be like going out on a fig leaf. Bound to fall off. Right?]

So in exchange for getting of the dime, the EU supply them with some pressure tools e.g. seats on some trade council with Israel that can apply sanction on EU-Israeli trade. Something creative like that, while at the same time find ways to fund the Palestinian people through NGOs, and spreading some social words on recognizing Israel's right to exist and the non-use of violence should there be a referendum on this issue as Hamas has stated. A carrot and stick approach all round.

Remember there are many out there gunning for a conflict, so we should place and spin these balloons out there so that at the end of the day no-one can say they did not have legitimate alternatives.

As to the PA and their restoration, maybe they may place some Arabs for some of those successful Gulf state [Bahrain?] in key financial position so that the Palestinian people can have confidence that the corruption will or has stopped.”

The other side of getting out of the box is to then give a good hard push at internal revolt within Iran using their internal “contras” to pull a term from the not so distant history. At the same time realizing ewe are working against a plotting, intelligent moving target.

And if all this is not working ideally we it to be legitimately clear, that they the Iranian Mullahs, are the ones who physically started it. And if this still does not work we may just have to shoot-the-breeze, doing it as carefully as we can covering all the angles.

Without more detailed information and technical assets I would say this alternate approach looks “ do-able” to usurp a phrase from Dick Chaney. That is what he is reported to have said when asked by a Saudi foreign minister, “Why Iraq ?“ But the do-able I’m giving is not just about counting planes, bombs and tanks, but importantly is also about understanding the human dynamics of it all.